Key Highlights:
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Prediction of Normal rainfall in 2021 augurs well for the Residential segment
-
Good monsoon will support RBI in keeping the repo
rate down, thereby supporting the low-interest rate regime and keeping
the home loan rates benign
-
House hunting likely to re-start extensively in the
current and next few months as buyers look to evaluate projects based on
waterlogging, seepage and related factors
-
Normal monsoons do support farm and rural incomes and
thus lower the defaults for such loans and this positively impacts the
banks’ financial results and provides impetus to the overall financial
sector health
Housing sales may see a spurt of 20-35 %
in the upcoming monsoons months: JLL
-
-
Prediction of Normal rainfall in 2021 augurs well for the Residential segment
-
Good
monsoon will support RBI in keeping the repo rate down, thereby
supporting the low-interest rate regime and keeping the home loan rates
benign
-
House
hunting likely to re-start extensively in the current and next few
months as buyers look to evaluate projects based on waterlogging,
seepage and related
factors
-
Normal
monsoons do support farm and rural incomes and thus lower the defaults
for such loans and this positively impacts the banks’ financial results
and provides
impetus to the overall financial sector health
With the macro economic factors this year expected to mirror 2020;
there is a likely
possibility of a 20-35 % spurt in housing sales in the monsoon months
in 2021 as was seen last year as per a recent study by JLL. While fuel
prices have risen in recent months along with rising inflation, the RBI
has retained its accommodative stance and
kept the repo rate unchanged. With the expectation of moderating
inflationary pressures as supply side disruptions are sorted and with
home loan rates sticking to their historic lows since last year, the
support structure for sales of homes seems intact this
year in the upcoming monsoon season as well as the approaching festive
season, the study further reveals.
As
seen in 2020, with the decent rainfall recorded across the country,
there was ample headroom for the RBI to keep the key rates at record
lows since the inflation was under check. This encouraged
a number of people to come forward and buy homes. Now in 2021 as well,
the home loan rates can be expected to remain close to their historic
lows, providing a good opportunity for the residential realty sector to
do well in the rainy season.
Post
the unlocking process which followed the first COVID wave last year,
the healthy monsoon ensured that the inflation fell to well below 6% by
December 2020 and remained so till the end of
FY 2021. This provided the RBI leeway in keeping the repo rate at
historic low levels, thereby helping the commercial banks in maintaining
home loan rates at near-record lows.
Dr. Samantak Das, Chief Economist and Head Research & REIS, India, JLL
said, “The residential real estate sector can expect buoyancy
in the sale of residential properties this year in the monsoons and the
upcoming festive season, just as last year where there was a 34% jump
in the corresponding period as compared to the immediately preceding
quarter. The jump in sales can be 20-35% this
year depending on how the pandemic shapes out. If there is a third wave
in the next few months, other economic disruptions could impact sales
growth negatively which may then hover around the lower range of our
expectations.”
As
we have seen over the past two years, when rainfall is ample, the
inflation continues to be within manageable levels which allowed enough
headroom to the RBI to keep the policy rate low. Even
in 2020 when the pandemic disrupted supply chains, the rising inflation
quickly moderated post the unlocking with the good monsoon acting as
the buffer towards sustained inflationary pressure. Even this year when
there is a prediction of normal monsoons, there
is a likelihood of the trend to continue as seen in the last two years
and the RBI should be able to keep the Repo Rate at the current levels.
This will allow the commercial banks to offer home loans at the existing
attractive rates which will continue to
drive housing sales. With most home purchases supported through home
loans, the lower home loan interest will continue to have a positive
impact on EMI outflows. Interestingly, we can expect house hunting to
start in a major way in the current and coming
few months, especially in regions like Mumbai Metropolitan Region and
Pune, as buyers look to evaluate projects and residential corridors
based on waterlogging, seepage, low lying areas prone to flooding and
other issues to eliminate locations or projects.
The upcoming festive season will also act as a catalyst during this
period to support housing sales.
It
is worth noting that the housing credit growth has consistently been in
the positive territory since 2019 and only saw a negative growth in
April 2020 which coincided with the period of the
most stringent lockdown during COVID. It is pertinent pointing out that
housing credit growth showed sharp spikes in the months immediately
following the monsoon season both in 2019 as well as in 2020, which
reflects that buying sentiment shows an upward trend
following the monsoon season. In a market driven by stable pricing,
attractive offers, low interest rates and changing homebuyer
preferences, a good monsoon will keep the sentiment positive.
Normal
monsoons also result in a good crop which ensures that farm and rural
loans, which form a sizeable chunk of priority sector lending and also
bad debts, have lower defaults and this positively
impacts the banks’ financial results going forward. This will provide
further impetus in the financial sector, particularly PSU banks.
A
better rural demand, spurred by good rainfall, will also help the sales
of white goods like TV, refrigerator, etc. Generally, a positive
domestic consumption sentiment would translate into
higher capital investments as well by households. Also, if inflation is
kept under check it allows for a portion of the household income to be
saved. Given that a good monsoon will support RBI in keeping the repo
rate down and maintaining an accommodative
stance, a low-interest rate regime will be seen in the country going
forward.