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Showing posts with label chief economist. Show all posts
Showing posts with label chief economist. Show all posts

Tuesday, 4 May 2021

RBI maintains ‘status quo’ to cushion the economy in

         Dr. Samantak Das, Chief Economist and Head of Research & REIS, JLL India.

RBI maintains ‘status quo’ to cushion the economy in the light of the pandemic resurgence; low mortgage rates to provide room for continued residential real estate growth

 

“The resurgence of the pandemic and resultant concerns of its impact on economy and businesses demanded a resilient approach. The Central bank has responded by taking an accommodative stance, kept the repo rates unchanged. The health of the economy has now become more contingent on the progress of vaccination and control of pandemic. In such a scenario, holding the repo rates at 4% is likely to cushion the impact on economy due to intermittent and regional lockdowns. The government’s decision to retain the inflation target of 4% with a tolerance band of +/- 2 percentage points for the coming five years provides continuity to the stance of the monetary policy committee.


Demand for residential real estate has revived as homebuyers took advantage of the lowest mortgage rates along with realistic pricing and various freebies and options rendered by developers. Residential sales in Q1 (Jan-March) 2021 recovered to more than 90% of the volumes witnessed during pre-Covid times across the top 7 cities. The sustained growth in sales presents clear signs of demand and buyer confidence coming back to the market. The recent surge in the spread of the pandemic is likely to impact the home buying sentiment for a few months. However, we believe that overall residential sales are likely to surpass the pre-Covid levels in the coming quarters.”

Monday, 3 May 2021

RBI Monetary Policy Quote From Our Clients

“RBI’s MPC expectedly stood pat on policy rates and reiterated accommodative stance as long as necessary to ensure economic activities are fully supported for durable recovery despite second wave of Covid-19 cases. The central bank retaining its 10.5% GDP growth forecast for FY22 shows faith in contribution to economic revival by key sectors and its liquidity measures along with bank lending to NBFCs being extended till September 30, 2021 is an acknowledgement of the systematically important role NBFCs have played in lending to the last mile. We remain steadfast and true to our promise of 


‘Containing fresh infections and boosting vaccinations are the 2 important steps to counter the socio-economic fallout of the pandemic. The pace of vaccination drive must be increased many folds and should cover younger population too. 

 

By keeping the repo rates unchanged, RBI has maintained an accommodative stance. The RBI Governor’s assurance to provide adequate credit by ensuring ample liquidity & announcement of Rs 10,000 Cr addl. liquidity to NHB must be passed onto the real estate  as the sector has been struggling to source funds for projects.

 

Real Estate sector is one of the key drivers of the economy and needs multi-faceted support from the Central bank and the Government to recover and bounce back to pre-COVID levels.’


Shriram Transport Finance

Please find below monetary policy views of  Mr. Umesh Revankar, Vice Chairman & MD, Shriram Transport Finance.

“RBI’s first monetary policy of FY22 was on expected lines with rates unchanged and accommodative stance retained. The Governor’s underlying commentary was dovish with continued priority on supporting economic revival measures through ample liquidity to all productive sectors. Recognising the key role played by NBFCs in making credit available to the last mile, on tap TLTROs and bank lending to registered NBFCs for on lending to priority sector has been extended by 6 months to September 30, 2021 and this will be particularly useful in supporting & nurturing financial needs of rural economy and semi-urban businesses, micro/small/individual operated businesses amid the current Covid-19 protocols.


ICICI Securities

Views of Ms. Anagha Deodhar – Chief Economist, 

ICICI Securities on the RBI Monetary policy

  

Quote

 

The MPC’s decision to pause and maintain accommodative stance is along expected lines. However, it retained GDP growth projections for FY22 at 10.5% despite large stimulus in other countries and its potential impact on global growth. In this policy, the biggest announcement was GSAP 1.0 under which the RBI plans to buy government securities worth Rs 1trn in Q1FY22. Along with GSAP, the RBI also announced extension of several liquidity facilities. Together, these measures are aimed at keeping financial conditions benign, ensure orderly evolution of the yield curve and supporting the nascent recovery.

Wednesday, 28 April 2021

            India real estate sector attracts USD 922
            million of investments in Q1, 2021: JLL

Q1 2021 (January-March) registers 21% growth in investments Y-o-Y

  • Commercial office assets dominated the deals with USD 864 million
  • Hyderabad attracts 42% of total investments; Mumbai at 21%

Institutional investments[1] continued the momentum during the first quarter (Jan-March) of 2021, registering 21% growth in volumes at USD 922 million, indicating sustained investor interest in India’s real estate market, according to JLL’s Capital Markets Update Q1 2021 released today.

Investments during the quarter were driven by more activity from funds and closed development stage deals and were further supported by external macroeconomic factors. However, the pandemic surge during the second half of March 2021 is expected to delay the investment pipeline in the second quarter, says JLL.

Significant recovery of investments in Q1 2021 at USD 922 million

“Institutional investment momentum continued during the first quarter of 2021, registering 21% growth in volume at USD 922 million, indicating the sustained investor interest in India’s real estate market,” said Dr. Samantak Das, Chief Economist and Head of Research & REIS (India), JLL.  The remarkable resilience of the office market and confidence in its long-term growth led investors to chase quality assets available at the core and development stages. We also see the maturing listed REIT market providing an alternative to other asset classes, which lacked income stability,” he added.

Commercial office space drives investment momentum

Commercial office assets dominated deals with USD 864 million transacted, translating into 94% of the total value in the first quarter. Office space developers liquidated their portfolios to deleverage or raise growth capital for the next phase of expansion. In addition, investors are actively scouting for warehousing assets at present and deals are likely to be concluded in the coming quarters. The housing sector, meanwhile, continues to experience an infusion of last-mile funding for project completion.

Investments by asset class



(USD million)

Asset class

Q1 2020

Q1 2021

Residential

          74

               58

Office

        505

             864

Warehousing

          54

               -  

Hotels

        130

               -  

Grand Total

        763

             922


Source: JLL Research

Hyderabad leads investments with 42% share, followed by Mumbai at 21%

Hyderabad witnessed the highest capital flows of USD 384 million, accounting for a 42% share of investments during the first quarter of 2021, due to the launch of new developments by the Phoenix Group. Mumbai accounted for 21% share of investments with USD 193 million deployed in its office and residential segments, supported by the reduction in stamp duty introduced by the State Government of Maharashtra.

Investments by city



USD million

Cities

2020

2021

Hyderabad

           100

                  384

Mumbai

              54

                  193

Delhi NCR

           171

                  107

Pune

                8

                      7

Bengaluru

           385

                     -  

Chennai

              35

                     -  

Pan-India

              10

                  231

Total

           763

                  922

Source: JLL Research                                                  

Institutional investments to boost growth of India’s REIT market

The successful debut of three listed REITs further positioned India on the radar of institutional investors. The Brookfield India REIT issue of ~USD 521 million was successfully launched in February 2021 and was eight times oversubscribed, with domestic mutual funds being major anchor investors. The market capitalisation of India’s listed REITs stood at USD 6.6 billion as on 16th April 2021, which is around 30% of the total market capitalisation of Nifty Realty Index companies.

Looking ahead

Though resurgence in the number of new Covid cases has caught the nation off guard, a swift response to the pandemic and lessons from the past are expected to guide our current actions.

Following broad trends are likely to emerge:

  • Investors are likely to continue evaluating deals and concluding investment processes with relaxation in conditions
  • JLL believes that the listing of more REITs will gather pace in 2021, also influencing the investment momentum
  • Apart from commercial office space, recovery in the housing sector is expected to attract funds, especially for projects in the last stages of completion
  • Residential sales in Q1 (January-March) 2021 recovered to more than 90% of the volumes witnessed in Q1 2020 (pre-Covid) across the top 7 cities. Smart recovery in demand in 2021 is expected to improve investment prospects. Opportunities for construction finance and last-mile funding would be available
  • Entry of new data centre operators and expansion plans of major players supported by infrastructure and PE funds are expected to drive deals
  • Platform deals in the logistics sector are likely to remain active as the segment benefitted from growing e-commerce demand as well as pandemic induced demand for cold storage facilities from pharma sector
Institutional investments have stayed on a firm wicket despite the pandemic in 2020 and are likely to gain further pace in 2021.

 

Monday, 30 November 2020

Hyderabad houses FLEX SPACE one of the fastest grwoing

 Hyderabad houses 4.5 million sq. ft. of flex space; one of the fastest growing flex markets in the country: JLL

 

Hyderabad hosts 4.5 million sq. ft. of the total flex space stock in India and is one among the fastest growing markets in the country, according to a recently launched report by JLL, Reimagine Flexspaces A 360⁰ view.

The demand for flexible spaces in large cities such as Hyderabad is likely to grow, with businesses having a greater need to accommodate portfolio expansion and contraction along with crisis support. This indicates the inherent growth potential of the flex office market in India.

“Flex space operators provided organised workspaces with a lock-in-period of 1-2 years. Companies that have pre-leased with scheduled delivery over next 1-2 years have shown interest in such flex spaces to have their temporary offices. Apart from big MNCs, Hyderabad also houses many start-ups and small companies in the field of Consulting, IT, and logistics. Flex spaces have become financially feasible for such small players as well with low capex,” said Sandip Patnaik, Managing Director and Head (Telangana & Andhra Pradesh), JLL India

The flex space market in Hyderabad saw major traction from mid-2018 and peaked in 2019. Flex spaces accounted for 28% of total office space leasing in 2019 in the city. While flex spaces already enjoyed popularity amongst start-ups and small-sized companies, there has been an increased traction amongst large BFSI and IT-ITeS occupiers mainly as managed office spaces as well as incubation spaces. This supports the significant expansion by flex space operators in the city during the last 2-3 years.

As per a recent report by JLL strong signs of recovery were witnessed in the Hyderabad office market in Q3 2020 with a healthy gross leasing at 1.9 million sq. ft. At the same time, net absorption grew by 31% from the previous quarter to 1.5 million sq. ft. in Q3 2020.

The country is expected to witness deeper penetration, throughout 2021 and beyond, the flex space market is forecast to grow at a slower pace and more organically. Irrespective of several short-term disruptions and challenges, increased demand from large enterprises, will support the growth of the flex space market to more than 50 million sq. ft. by 2023. It is anticipated that flexible space will grow by an average of around 15-20% per annum over the next three-to-four years, although this trajectory will not be linear. Previously expected levels of new investment are unlikely to be seen, as operators look to solidify their existing operations and it is likely that certain operators will not be able to weather the storm.

As corporates return to the workplace, they are likely to further leverage flexible space to reduce capital expenditure and create cost savings, while allowing for split teams and de-densification requirements. Developments that initially drove the growth of the flex market, like the focus on utilizing workplaces to boost productivity and drive dynamic work cultures, enhance emphasis on employee health etc., will continue to influence the next phase in India.

 “While the flex-space market more than tripled in the last 3 years, the momentum going ahead will be relatively slower. Players are likely to tread cautiously, and the overall market is expected to expand 1.5 times from the current size. At the same time, demand for flexible space is likely to remain resilient and we expect the size of the flex space market to cross 50 million sq. ft. by 2023, led by increased demand from larger enterprises,” Dr Samantak Das, Chief Economist and Head of Research & REIS, JLL India.

In the commercial real estate space, flex spaces have become synonymous with adaptability. As preferences evolve, a range of flexible space options have taken shape to suit changing business needs, including remote working. To respond to the current disruption, and to lay the groundwork to deal with what may be permanent changes for the industry, flex space operators have been agile and are recalibrating their business strategies. They are now laying a greater emphasis on profitability and evolving strategies to ensure stable occupancy levels in their flex space centres.

 Large enterprises to drive demand

The densification trend that had emerged over the last decade will likely reverse with enterprises leaning on flexible office space to relax space density. Large enterprises might also look at splitting up their offices to reduce commute times and dependence on public transport. However, with expected economic uncertainty, companies will be hesitant to commit large capital to real estate. In terms of strategy, leasing directly to a third-party flexible space operator is the most widely adopted model. A partnership model allows both landlords and operators to leverage each other’s strengths. There are several ways to implement a partnership, with revenue shares and management contracts being the most common. Under the revenue share option, both parties split the upside. In the case of a management contract, the operator gets a fixed payment, while the landlord assumes all the leasing risk and enjoys the upside. Despite the benefits of this approach, partnerships are relatively less common in India for now.

What the future holds

The entry of more than 300 flex space operators into the country helped commoditize the market. Prior to the pandemic, most of these operators were focused on attaining scale and capturing market share. However, the availability of capital, in the current scenario, will be a challenge. Players who have embarked on aggressive growth so far will find themselves strapped for capital. In such a scenario, the market is likely to witness consolidation activity driven by larger operators with financial wherewithal acquiring smaller ones. 

Flexible workplaces will continue to be a major influence on the future direction of the Indian office market. There will be an even greater focus on providing customized office space solutions and demand for flexible space will not only return but increase, as occupiers embrace the core plus flex model more widely. Despite the massive disruption from the impact of COVID-19, the future of flexible workspaces will remain optimistic.